29  Session 20: Stochastic Control · HJB Equation (Concepts Only)

Unit 4 — Math Intuition Bridges
Book Chapter 11 (concepts only — full derivation in Session 25 Track 2)
Track Common core (both tracks)

29.1 Learning Objectives

By the end of this session, students will be able to:

  1. State the optimal control problem in plain language — what is being optimized, over what choices, subject to what constraints.
  2. Articulate the dynamic programming principle (Bellman’s logic) and why it works.
  3. Describe what the HJB equation is — a PDE that the value function must satisfy — without solving it.
  4. Apply the HJB intuition to the LP exit timing problem from Sessions 11–13.
  5. Identify the smooth pasting condition as the boundary condition that determines the optimal exit threshold.

29.2 Pre-Class Assignment

  • Read: Book Chapter 11 (read for concepts; skim proofs)

29.3 In-Class Outline (75 minutes)

Time Segment Format
0:00–0:05 Recap Session 19 · Today: optimal decisions under uncertainty Lecture
0:05–0:20 The control problem — what we’re solving for Lecture
0:20–0:35 Dynamic programming and the value function Lecture + intuitive proof sketch
0:35–0:55 The HJB equation — what it says and what it doesn’t Lecture
0:55–1:10 Smooth pasting and the exit boundary Lecture (revisit Session 12 with new lens)
1:10–1:15 Bridge to Session 21 (mean-field games) Lecture

29.4 Discussion Questions

  1. The HJB equation is a PDE. Most LPs don’t solve PDEs. Is the framework’s reliance on this math a barrier to adoption? How can it be mitigated?
  2. Real LPs face liquidity, regulatory, tax, and behavioral constraints in addition to the value-maximization problem. How does HJB extend to handle these?
  3. The smooth pasting condition assumes the exit payoff is smooth. What if the secondary market has discrete pricing tiers (e.g., -5%, -10%, -15% bid levels) creating jumps? Does the boundary still exist?

29.5 Worked Example: Sketch of the GE-LAV HJB

The GE-LAV exit problem in HJB form:

State: \(L_t\). Time horizon: \([0, T]\). Liquidity dynamics: \(dL_t = \kappa(\bar{L} - L_t) dt + \sigma_L dW_t\).

Value function: \(V(L, t)\) = expected discounted hold value from \((L, t)\).

HJB equation (continuation region \(L > L^*(t)\)):

\(\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial t} + \kappa(\bar{L} - L) \dfrac{\partial V}{\partial L} + \dfrac{1}{2} \sigma_L^2 \dfrac{\partial^2 V}{\partial L^2} - r(L) V + C(L, t) = 0\)

Where \(C(L, t)\) is the expected cash flow rate from the position.

Terminal condition: $V(L, T) = $ terminal payoff (final distribution).

Boundary conditions at the free boundary \(L^*(t)\): - \(V(L^*, t) = P_\text{secondary}(L^*)\) (value match) - \(\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial L}\Big|_{L^*} = \dfrac{dP_\text{secondary}}{dL}\Big|_{L^*}\) (smooth pasting)

Numerical solution:

Discretize \(L\) on a grid, \(t\) on a time-step grid. Back-step from \(t = T\) to \(t = 0\) using finite differences. At each step: - Compute \(V\) assuming continuation - Compare to \(P_\text{secondary}(L)\) - Take maximum (American option style) - Record the boundary where the max switches

Output: The \(L^*(t)\) chart from Session 12.

29.6 What to Expect Next Session

Session 21 covers mean-field games (MFG) — the framework for when many agents are each solving their own HJB and influencing the aggregate state. This is the general equilibrium layer of GE-LAV.

Key concepts: - McKean-Vlasov SDEs (the OU process when drift depends on the population distribution) - The fixed-point structure of MFG equilibrium - The collective externality and why it matters for private market valuation

Reading: Book Chapter 13 (concepts only).


← Session 19 | Schedule | Next: Session 21 →